It’s Yom Hazikaron here in Israel. The day when most of the country comes together and remembers the sacrifices that this country has required. The ceremony in Rabin Square varies little from year to year, sad songs interspersed with the stories of the those who have fallen. Those stories are always well done and moving with often parents or other loved ones talking about the fallen. Tonight I was struck by the number of stories of those who perished in the Yom Kippur War or the time before and after. Very often soldiers who were close to my age. In almost every one of these cases, it was a brother or a friend from the unit who spoke, for by now the parents are gone.
Its hard hearing the stories and thinking of the kids who were my age, but never got to live the life that I have had. Never got to have children and grandchildren. It’s hard to realize what so many sacrificed so that we could live here in freedom.
Tonight’s events come one week after Yom Hashoah, and in some ways put the sacrifice of Israelis into perspective. The 23,646 soldiers who died represented a terrible loss. However, I can still remember my Mother talking about all of her first cousins (probably 40 out 45)who died during the holocaust and never got to live, and then I think of the 1 million children who perished, a number that is simply too big to understand.
So here we stand 70 years after the establishment of the State. The State of Israel that we the Jewish people dreamed of and the founder of Modern Zionism took the steps to make it a reality. That state in many ways has succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of its founders. We are a wealthy country with a strong economy who despite our small size leads the worlds in many areas. And yet in one way it has not succeeded at all. Our children like us still have to go into the army. We fear that next year when we commemorate Yom Hazikaron the number of those we remember will have gone up.
Tomorrow night is Yom Hashoah and I will be filing an appropriately somber article to Newsweek on the holocaust and the events in Syria in the last few days and years. But tonight a totally different sort of event was taking place here in Tel Aviv. In Rabin Square, over 10,000 mostly young people (20’s and 30’s ) showed up for a unique show. A pre-Eurovision concert where representatives of 30 countries came to preview their songs that they will sing in two months at the Eurovision contest. Singers from throughout Europe and from Australia previewed their songs to an enthusiastic crowd. I am sure that many in the crowd imagined that they were standing in the middle of a city in Europe and not 40 miles from Gaza and 90 miles from the Syrian border.
Events seem to be moving ever faster- As I write this post I am listening to Mark Zuckerberg testifying before the Senate, while my twitter feed just informed me that the Russians have vetoed a US proposal to create an independent commission to investigate the gas attacks in Syria.
Iran today promised that it would retaliate for the alleged Israeli attack on an Iranian base in Syria, in which a significant number of Iranians were killed. It would seem that the Iranian installation that was attacked was significant and the attack was very successful. Israel is taking the Iranian threat seriously and is preparing accordingly.
Tonight Ehud Barak was interviewed on the news. He somberly stated that while in his opinion at any given time there is a 1% chance that a miscalculation could bring about a full-scale war, recent events have brought that number to 10%, something that he thought was way too high. Barak stated that while the army was ready for a potential war, the country as a whole is not.
So here we are a week before Israel’s 70th anniversary, and on one hand, we celebrate our success and reach out as part of the larger world community. At the same time, it’s becoming clear that there exists a very real possibility that war is a very real possibility.
The Gaza Strip is located a mere 40 miles from Tel Aviv and yet, for most Tel Avivans, it could be as far as the moon. Yes, many of the residents of Tel Aviv (those over the age of 30) can remember being in Gaza as part of their military service, and many others have children (or in some cases grandchildren) who are serving on its borders. Nevertheless, the daily life of Gazans is foreign to almost all of us. Of course, almost everyone in Tel Aviv remembers the summer less than four years ago, during which Hamas fired missiles at Tel Aviv almost daily. However, the fact that Israel’s anti-missile system intercepted every single one of them has minimized the potential threat from Gaza.
Which brings us to the events that began this past Friday. If the demonstrations/riots had been about improving conditions in Gaza — i.e. that Israel should provide more water, more electricity, allow more Gazans transit via Israel to other countries, etc. — most Israelis would have been sympathetic to the cause. The leader of Hamas, a man who has publicly committed to the destruction of Israel and whose organization has been ruling Gaza for the last 11 years stated at the start of the march: “The ‘March of Return’ will continue… until we remove this transient border.” The protests “mark the beginning of a new phase in the Palestinian national struggle on the road to liberation and ‘return’… Our people can’t give up one inch of the land of Palestine.” In other words, the goal of the march was to destroy the border fence and allow the millions of Palestinian who live in Gaza to return to the homes their great-grandparents
had, in what has been the state of Israel for the last 70 years — a demand rejected by at least 75% of the Israeli public, if not more. Consequently, as Palestinians approached the fence on Friday, the Israeli public was not particularly sympathetic.
The Israeli army faced a dilemma regarding the Gaza protest. The IDF knew that the true goal of March was to get as many Palestinians killed, in order to gain the world’s attention and depict Israel in the worst possible light. Missiles were no longer making an impact; Israel was systematically destroying the tunnels Hamas constructed, financed with millions of dollars from the aid it had received; and their attempts at reconciliation with the Palestinian Authority, without agreeing to give up its weapons had failed, as well. The first demonstration, of what has been promised to be a series of many marches, was scheduled for the eve of Passover, a time that under normal circumstances, the Israeli Defense Forces gives leave to as many soldiers as possible, to allow them to be home with family. Instead, this year, the IDF reinforced the border with elite ground forces, including as many trained snipers as possible. The Army warned demonstrators not to come within 300 meters of the border fence and prepared for the worst.
30,000 Gazans, about 2% of the population, turned out to demonstrate on Friday (approximately the same size as many of the demonstrations in Tel Aviv). 95% of the demonstrators stayed away from the border and far out of harms way. However, a few hundred approached the border fence, many trying to damage it. To address the minority who did not heed prior warnings to remain at a distance from the border, Israeli snipers were given orders to shoot at the legs of anyone who was unaffected by the tear gas that had been dispensed from drones flying overhead and shoot to kill anyone carrying a weapon. However, soldiers were ordered not to shoot to kill women, children, or the elderly — under any circumstances. The snipers did their jobs and only shot at people who approached the border-fence, forcing them to flee. Some were wounded by shots to the legs, some were impaired by the tear gas and 17 young men were killed. Hamas proudly displayed many of their identities, as members of their military wing, who gave their lives. I
Hamas succeeded in gaining at least a bit of attention from the world — and obtained a video of young man being shot, while retreating. However, the world is awash in tragedy and death at the moment. Photos of young men who are clearly acting provocatively being shot is unlikely to gain much of the world’s attention. Such actions certainly will gain no sympathy from the Israeli public. The IDF and the Israeli government can be satisfied that the border was not breached and no women or children were killed.
Still, nothing has changed, and nothing seems likely to change in the coming months, or years. The slow motion suffering of the residents of Gaza continues to steadily worsen, as the water table recedes, and gets ever more polluted. Work is impossible to find in Gaza. The hopes that accompanied the Israeli withdrawal are long gone, snuffed out by years of Hamas rule, and the resultant severing of almost all economic ties with Israel, and with much of the world.
Israel withdrew its forces from Gaza in 2006. The hope then was that Gaza might develop economically, and provide a model for a potential peaceful future between the Palestinians and Israelis. But that aspiration never came to be, as Gaza represents the very fundamental problem in the Israeli– Palestinian saga. In 1947, before the outbreak of Israel’s War of Independence, there were approximately 60,000 residents living on the Gaza Strip. That year, the United Nations voted to created two states, in what was British Mandatory Palestine — a Jewish State and an Arab State.
The Jews in Palestine accepted the United Nations plan, while the Arabs did not. In the subsequent war, 600,000 Palestinians became refugees, many of whom fled to the Gaza Strip — which was occupied by Egypt, while others moved to the Jordanian occupied West Bank, (part of the area the UN proposed to become the Arab State), and others fled to Lebanon. During that period, the world was awash in refugees; some from World War II, with others from the division of the Indian sub-continent into a primarily Hindu India and a Muslim Pakistan.
The United Nations had created the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to deal with the over 50 million refugees in the world. The Commissioner’s mandate included helping to resettle the refugees as permanent residents in the new lands to which they had moved. However, when it came to the Palestinian refugees that organization was considered unsuitable, since the Arab states did not agree to the resettlement of the new refugees in their lands. Instead, a new organization — the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) — was created with a different mission, i.e., that of helping the refugees until such time when they could return to their lands. This also meant that unlike the UN Refugee Commission that only recognized the individuals who had themselves fled from one land to another, the refugee commission for Palestine chose to recognize all descendants as refugees themselves.
So today, 70 years later, the approximately 200,000 refugees who entered the Gaza Strip in 1948 has grown into a population of 1.5 million people. Most have been sustained by international aid — especially after they were no longer allowed to work in Israel, following the bombings of the Second Intifadah. Gaza has no economy to speak of, and no prospect for a better future which they can look forward to.
There have been innovative proposals made over the years to bring some relief to Gaza residents — e.g. construction of an offshore port and airport for Gaza (an outstanding idea that seems hopelessly bogged down in internal Israeli and Palestinian politics); or the purchase some land in Sinai from the Egyptian to settle some of those in Gaza (another idea that has gained no traction). However, doing nothing is not an option, some innovative solution to dramatically improve the lives of those in Gaza is imperative. Until one is found, the cycle of violence will continue. Israel will continue to prosper, even as its sons and daughters are drafted to spend the prime of their lives serving in the army, and the Palestinians will sink ever deeper into despair — a despair that is unquestionably dangerous for all.
I was about to go to sleep when the news just hit that General McMaster has been replaced with Bolton. McMaster is a General and a scholar of the Viet Nam War. Like most people who have actually been in the army and fought, he believed in doing everything you can short of going to war. Trump and Bolton have not been in the army. Bolton has been a strong supporter of using military force. He has proposed a preemptive strike on North Korea, and is a strong supporter of ending the Iran agreement.
I have to say sitting in Tel Aviv I really find this scary. I have been trying to understand why PM Netanyahu has been pushing at the moment to end the agreement. I understand he always thought it was a weak agreement, but the weakest part of it is that it partially sunsets in 8 more years. Why on earth would you force it to sunset now? With a US administration that is in chaos? With a US administration that is angered most of the world on what matter or another? With an administration that has just announced it is starting a trade war with China?
Just a late night rant- maybe now it makes sense why the Israeli government acknowledged our bombing of the Syrian reactor, despite the fact that the intelligence community thinks it was a bad idea- to show it can be done. Begin did it, Olmert did it now Bibi wants to do it. There was an article this week in Maariv that said the Bibi knows he will be indicted, he is just playing for time hoping for a miracle (or a war).
Three adults have left the administration in one week- Cohen, Tillerson and now McMaster. They are being replaced by people with less experience and knowledge whose main qualification is they know how to say yes to Trump.
Oddly tonight on the Israeli news Nadav Eyal did a piece on the Iraq War 15 years later, similar to what I wrote in my Newsweek column today and he was asked by Yaron London if there were anyone who still thought the war was a good idea- His answer John Bolton. Help….
I will stop writing and go to sleep, please excuse the typos-
hI have been working with Google since the first days. Some years I’ve loved them; some years I’ve hated them. I always found them capricious, making decisions they thought were good for users, without worrying about the consequences. I have grown to accept that thoughtlessness, although I still have real problems with their approach. I once got into a discussion with a Google executive who admitted their algorithm changes would hurt people who should not be hurt, but he explained the changes were made “for the greater good”. I could not convince him that Google (already a formidable company 10 years ago) had a responsibility to do all it could to limit that collateral damage — even if it cost them some money. He did not agree.
I have been part of that collateral damage, especially when they decided to give preference to newer content, a number of years ago. My website, historycentral.com is a history site that has been up on the web since 1995. With a swift change of the Google algorithm, suddenly people who had copied our content (i.e. plagiarized without permission or giving us credit) would rank in positions on the early search pages and we would not. I am over that slight from Google, with its added loss of brand recognition and advertising revenue. Over the years, we have slowly regained some our standing in Google search, but it has never again been as good as it once was.
Today, I decided Google is simply evil. They made a decision to remove the status of “Google partner” from all YouTube Channels that do not have 1000 subscribers and 4000 hours of viewing. Our channel had 3,950 hours of viewing last year and 600+ subscribers. Due to the nature of the channel, it is not the type of channel to which you would subscribe. I upload new videos only when I am working on new areas of history (although, on Monday, I did upload a 7-minute narrated video overview about the Holocaust that I created.) While I rewrote the World War II section on the site, I saw that this sort of piece was clearly missing.
I am not ultimately worried about the loss of revenue from YouTube. It has been getting continually smaller as YouTube via Google decide an increasing number of my videos are not “suitable content for advertising”. Advertising was removed a few months ago from our most watched video, a 20-minute summary of the Civil War, as has been the case with many historical videos.
Above all, it is the principle that makes me angry. Google is concerned that their crown jewel, i.e., advertising, is being tainted by content that is, or could be problematic. They know their precious algorithms are not good enough. As a result, they decided they needed to have people review the videos. Yet, now, all of a sudden, they decided that despite earlier announcements they were hiring 1000s of people to review all the channels, they chose instead to cut off 70% of the “smaller” sites, so now, their job just became significantly smaller. For them, the revenue the smaller sites bring in is insufficient to make the bother worthwhile. They are probably right. However, at what point does a company become so big and so powerful that it needs to be regulated as a utility? I do not have that answer, but we truly are nearing that point.
In the meantime, because I do not want to give up my status as YouTube partner yet, if you have a moment, please go to the channel and subscribe.
Today is Thanksgiving. It is the one American holiday that our family continues to celebrate in Israel. This year, as in most past years, the majority of the people attending the celebration will be friends of my daughter Tali. This time she did most of the cooking. My main responsibility was purchasing the turkey. Not as easy as it sounds. Supermarkets in Israel do not stock whole turkeys, and it required special effort to get my local market to order one. It is so rare that when I got to check out line, the woman manning the cash register called over the other workers to see something they had never seen before … a whole turkey.
Thanksgiving brings up happy memory of my youth. For all of my childhood and teen years we always went to the Thanksgiving dinner hosted by one of my Grand Aunts. They were big affairs with the large extended family in attendance. Everyone would bring something else, with my Grandmother making her lemon meringue pie, and my Grand-uncle Morris, a veteran of the US Navy (one of the first Jewish Naval officers) always being in charge of carving the turkey.
Remembering those events also reminds me a little of how I felt in the last few years I attended the event, as the year of my Aliyah and induction in the Israeli army came closer. I was so sure of myself then. I knew all the answers. I felt a little superior to some of my relatives, with my clear connection to Israel (at the time I was already working for the Jewish Agency). I remember giving a speech at a convention, a few weeks before we (myself and several friends) made Aliyah — the complete details of which I do not remember, but it was clearly a speech that represented my view at that time, which was the traditional “Shlilat HaGolah,” or negation of the diaspora.
Over the past 40 years, some of that time spent living here in Israel and some time in the US, my views have evolved. There was no question that 42 years ago when I first made Aliyah, I believed every Jew should move here. I really did not see any future for the Jewish diaspora. Today, I feel it’s not that simple. While from a national perspective, I still believe it would be great of all Jews moved to Israel, I know that that’s not going to happen and that this place that I have always called home — even when I did not live here — is not the right place for everyone. As to the future of the diaspora, it’s four decades later and the US Jewish community, despite what I thought then, is still going strong. Still the same concerns I had 40 years ago remain.
Which brings me to the events of the last two days. Yesterday I participated in an hour-long show on i24News, where the main guest was Morton Klein of the ZOA. My parents met each other at the young ZOA, and both were extremely active in that organization in their youth. For many years, throughout my childhood, my parents would go to monthly ZOA meetings, where they would have food, listen to a speaker and discuss events. Back then, ZOA was non-political, similar to Hadassah — a far cry from the very right-wing ZOA of today, whose annual dinner was attended by Steve Bannon. However, that is not what I want to write about now — nor do I want to write about the high salary the ZOA pays Klein as President. I guess I am just jealous that I was a lay President of a Jewish organization (a school) for nine years and never saw a cent.
What I want to talk about is the discussion we tried to have with Klein about the crisis in the relations between Israel and American Jewry. Interestingly, when asked directly, he said the Israeli government should have honored the Kotel agreement, it itself had negotiated, but he immediately pivoted and said he saw no problem with the relationship between American Jews and Israel. He stated that as soon as American Jews hear from him how murderous the Palestinians are they immediately support Israel. Leaving aside how absurd the statement itself is, the incredible one-dimensional nature of someone who has been working in the American Jewish community, as the head of the ZOA, for 23 years was breathtaking. To not recognize the breadth and depth of some of the problems between the two communities was astounding. Of course, other things he said and believes, for instance, that someone cannot be an antisemite if they like Israel, was equally mind-boggling (but that is for another discussion). Klein did mention that he has been writing a column every other week for Briebart — but…
What was just an interesting discussion on a TV show took center stage in the Israel political discourse, a few hours later, when on the same station that I had appeared, just a few hours earlier, deputy foreign minister Tzipi Hotovely was interviewed on “The Rundown”. When asked about the problems in the relationship between American Jews and Israel, Hotovely took the Netanyahu line that the Israeli government was doing a great deal to ensure that non-orthodox Jews could pray as they wish at the Kotel. When pushed by anchor Nurit Ben, Hotovely made her fatal mistake by saying that American Jews cannot understand us — “since their children do not go into the army like our children do. They do not fight in Iraq and Afghanistan.”
Being unqualified for her job, Hotovely had no idea that the claim she made is an old canard used by antisemites, claiming that Jews do not fight in the army. Of course, during the times of the draft in the US, that claim was just false — the Jews sent the highest percentage of soldiers to fight in World war II of any ethnic group and leaving apart the American Jews I know serving in the Armed forces, there is an element of truth. The US armed forces consist primarily of people from either the lower middle class or from families that have long traditions of service in the military. Neither of which are groups that Jews are generally a part. So, yes there was a grain of truth in what she said. There was an even greater truth in what she meant to say — or was trying to say — however awkwardly.
There is a gulf of understanding between those who go the army and those that do not. There is a gulf between those whose children have to go to the army and those that do not. I feel it personally, as the draft date for my youngest rapidly approaches. There can be no denying how it impacts the relationship between American Jews and Israelis, but that has always been the case. Whether it was in ’67, ’73 or any other point, that difference has always been very real. No, the problems in the relationship today have nothing to do with this unchanged reality, they have everything to do with the Kotel agreement the government failed to honor; Netanyahu’s embrace of Trump, when most of American Jewry hates him; the failure of the Israeli government to speak out promptly about antisemitic incidents in the US and other similar issues. There are many fundamental issues at work that nobody wants to even discuss — like what happens to a relationship that was fundamentally based on dependency, once the dependent party (Israel) is now strong and wealthy?
Of course, no one wants to discuss any of that …
Instead, everyone has called for Hotevely to be fired. I agree she should be fired because she is unqualified for the job — having no diplomatic experience and representing the extreme right-wing of the government, i.e., not really the type of person you want to effectively put in charge of the Foreign Ministry, but the careless half-truth she uttered last night is clearly not the reason.
Which brings me back to the beginning of this rant — Thanksgiving. Two days ago, Sarah Huckabee, the White House Press Secretary asked reporters to say what they were thankful for before asking questions. It was not an appropriate question, however, since one of the hats I wear puts me on the White House press list, I will answer that question — as someone who is a much less sure of myself than I was so many years ago at my grand-aunt’s house on Thanksgiving … I am thankful for the wonderful family that I have. I am blessed with a happy marriage and three wonderful grown children. I am also thankful that in this period before the twilight of my life, I have the opportunity to share my opinion on matters such as this, since other than the bored readers who have read through this piece, earlier tonight I had the chance to appear on Arabic TV and try to explain the Hotovely controversy to an Arabic speaking audience.
It’s hard to be on a set in a TV studio in Israel and discuss the killing of over 50 people and already know that nothing is going to done to stop the next killing. I spent an hour on air today, during which the full extent of the tragedy was becoming clear, discussing the implications and what can be done, and I realized tragically nothing. I read on air the Nevada state gun rules; you do not need a permit to carry openly, no ban on assault weapons and no limit to the size of the magazine. Also, no limitations to carrying guns into casinos, bars and no problem carrying a gun while drunk. It hard to explain to an Israeli how it’s possible for anyone to just buy an assault weapon, but frankly it’s hard to explain it a New Yorker.
I was actually amazed my fellow guest in the studio who is actually i24News Arab Affairs correspondent but grew up in Kansas City was describing how it’s now usual to see people walking around the streets carry their guns openly. As the hour progressed, off cameras, during the commercial breaks we would lament about what has gone wrong in American society that has brought it to this. Many of us have still not gotten over the election of President Trump, and cannot believe that enough American actually voted for him to get him elected. So many of them seem unphased by his actions. Today he gave a short Presidential speech on the tragedy, but of course now is not the time to talk about actions to prevent the next deaths, the 33,000 gun deaths that occur in the US every year.
Events seem to be happening faster than ever, and no it is not communications and not Twitter or Facebook. My on-air appearance today, was to take place at the same time as my weekly radio appearance, so I had my host call me early and I did the show in a cab on the way to Jaffo. There we discussed the chances of war with North Korea-very real, the disaster the US pulling out of the Iran deal would be ( no gain since Iran already received much of what it wanted) and crazy need of the Catalonians to go it alone. All of this is happening while the people of Puerto Rico suffer.
All the problematic things that have been happening in Israel these past few months seem to pale in comparison to recent events in the US and the world
It’s been a crazy few days. Rosh Hashanah is coming, and I have been going back and forth to Yaffo, appearing on i24 News four times in the past three days. This afternoon I was asked to appear again. I sent in my latest Newsweek story before I left for the studio.
After my appearance, I stopped in Shuk HaCarmel to buy a few things. At the same time, I was listening, and partially watching Trump’s speech at the United Nations. While his statements on North Korea were troubling (has he never heard of Teddy Roosevelt’s famous quote “talk softly and carry a big stick”??), and his talk about Iran is reckless, since the U.S. does not have a plan B (although I was on the air the other night with an Iran expert who believes that U.S. sanctions alone could collapse the regime- I do not buy that) what was worse, was the end of the speech and his calls to blatant Nationalism. His calls to Nationalism has brought out the worst humanity has to offer. He envisions a world opposite to the world that I had hoped my children and grandchildren would inherit from us. It, of course, got worse, when Prime Minister Netanyahu stated:”In over 30 years in my experience with the UN, I never heard a bolder or more courageous speech”. So now I can be embarrassed to be an American, and to be an Israeli at the same time.
On Sunday I participated on a panel in which one of the topics discussed was the crisis between American Jews, and Israel. While others focused on the Kotel agreement, I said the issue is deeper and relates to values. A prime example of this, is the Israeli government’s enthusiasm for Trump, at a time where most American Jews feel very differently. Today’s speech and Netanyahu’s response underscores that.
We live in a strange country at a strange time. On Friday it was officially announced that the wife of the Prime Minister Sara Netanyahu is going to be indicted for misuse of public funds. No one in the right mind believes that her husband was not aware of what was going on. All last week the news was filled with stories of different people arrested all of them confidants of the Prime Minister. (See my Newsweek story) . But tonight what is happening in the streets of Tel Aviv? About 100 people have come out for the demonstration against corruption, and 14,000 or more are taking part in a rally for animal rights and favoring vegetarianism.
Most of those attending the rally against corruption were people in their 50’s,60’s and 70’s. The speaker called for Bibi to resign and described the many corrupt things that have happened, and gave a preview of some of the things that have not been understood by the public yet.
The large rally for animal rights was filled with young people including some of the younger members of the Knesset. It was well organized and the crowd was enthusiastic. They seemed strangely hopeful that they would make a difference.
I interviewed a few of the marchers and asked them why they came out. Two young women said because they cared about animals. I asked why not go to the rally against corruption? They shrugged and said they cared about corruption, but animals are something that tugs at your heart. They said animals cannot speak for themselves. When I asked another couple why did they come out for animal rights and not for the slaughter in Syria (there were a couple of rallies at the Russian Embassy where 100 people showed up)they also shrugged and said they really care about animals.
We are at a strange place. Young people want to express themselves but seem convinced that when it comes to politics or even economics it’s impossible. Instead, they seem to be directing themselves to a nice generic cause- where they cannot fail, after all, there are more vegans and vegetarians in Tel Aviv every day.
My professional world at least the journalistic part of it is strangely bifurcated. For Newsweek I write about political, military events here in Israel, as I do for the economic publication that I cover Israel for, but for CEEMarketwatch I spend time following all the main economic stories in Israel. On the other hand, when I appear on TV on i24News or on Radio I return to my roots and my expertise on American politics. Once in a while, they meet when Bibi visits Washington or Trump comes here. However, at the moment it seems that my two worlds and my two expertise are meeting in a sort of strange virtual way.
Both last night on the phone with a friend and this morning when I had my daily get together with a group of friends at the dog park the discussion was who was going to be forced out first, Bibi or Trump. Yes, I know many say it will never happen, and where is the fire? ( well there seems to be a little fire recently) but around both of them the smoke is so thick that somewhere in there, there must be a blazing fire.
In reality in the past week on both sides of the Atlantic, the walls have no doubt been closing in just a little on respective leaders. On Trump’s side the Emails released by his son while not directly tying him to the crime or without a doubt establishing a crime, have undermined six months of denials, members of his campaign clearly met with the Russians. How much collusion will come out in the coming weeks and months is unknown but if I had to guess I believe the revelations that will come out over the coming months will take everyone’s breath away. I am amazed at those defending him, although I should not be after all enough people voted for him so he became President knowing what they did, there can be no doubt at this point that was willing to accept help from the Russians, help that will turn out to be decisive. There is much we still do not know and as a result, I have not updated my book on the History of Presidential elections yet but the outlines are clear, and I do not believe that President Trump will make it to 2020- but then I did not think he was going to elected
Here the investigations into Bibi and those around him keep getting deeper and in the case of the latest two investigations much more explosive. There are currently four different investigations of Bibi or people close to him. They are now called Case 1,000, Case 2,000 Case 3,000 and Case 4,000. The first case is where the most direct evidence has already been collected relate to Bibi’s receipt of gifts and other things that were not proper and not reported that apparently come to a cumulative value of $100,000’s. The second case relates to tapes of conversations in which Bibi promised financial benefits to the publisher of the Yediot Achronot if it would publish favorable stories on him and unfavorable stories on his rival. The incentives including having Yisrael Hayom (the Adelson paper) not publish on Friday, something if he was not lying about his connection to the paper he should not have been able to offer. Case 3,000 involves the purchase of submarines and frigates from Germany. The charge is that money exchanged hands from the manufacturer to former member of the Nation security council a lawyer that is Bibi’s cousin and sometimes lawyer and the former head of the Navy. While Bibi is not formally being investigated in this case yet, he was at the forefront of the efforts to buy the subs from Germany and it would seem in retrospect it may have been the reason that Bougie Ya’alon who opposed the purchase was fired by Bibi. Finally, we have the newest case that of Bezeq. It started with the investigation into the purchase of Yes (satellite provider ) by Bezeq. Yes was privately held by the Shaul Elovich, who controlled Bezeq, and it’s alleged that Bezeq bought Yes at a very inflated price and furthermore that Yes cooked its books to ensure that Elovich received the maximum he could. It should be noted that Elovich is a friend of Bibi’s a friendship he tried to hide, and when it was outed Bibi was forced to recuse himself from dealing with Bezeq or its competitors in his role of Minister of Communications a role he insisted on. The investigations took a turn when the hand picked (by Bibi ) Director General of the Ministry of Communication was arrested and interrogated on the charge of acting against the interests of the public on behalf of Bezaq. He has been remanded to house arrest for 14 days.
So lots of smoke surrounds both Trump and Bibi. Both have been investigated many times before and both have avoided prosecution. Will they this time? My sense is there is just too much smoke, and in both cases, it will only take one of the lesser defendants to agree to become a state witness and turn on the big boss. At least in the nation that is never boring there is no chance of boredom setting in.